DUBAI: The 28th United Nations Conference of Parties (COP28) came to a close in Dubai on Wednesday with a historical global climate deal known as the UAE Consensus. This has kept the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times within reach. The 198 countries agreed for a transition away from fossil fuels to reach net zero by 2050, a first in three decades of climate negotiations.
After overnight 'hard' bargains that reportedly went on till 4 am, COP28 President Sultan Al-Jaber gaveled approval of the central document — the global stocktake (GST). Delegates stood, applauded and hugged each other.
It was clear from the final text that there were certain compromises struck, especially on coal to appease countries like India and China, who were steadfast and contested singling out coal in the previous GST draft text.
Previously, a call was made for rapidly phasing down unabated coal and limitations on permitting new and unabated coal power generation. This has now been watered down to "accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power".
While some negotiating groups argued that COP28 was another missed opportunity to push for phase out of all fossil fuels, there is no denial that a decisive step was taken by calling for transition away from fossil fuels. The standout clause of the outcome document is the para28(d), which calls on Parties for “...Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”
Nations have recognised that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C with no or limited overshoot requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.
The UAE Consensus also encourages countries to submit economy-wide Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by the end of next year, includes a new specific target to triple renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030, and builds momentum towards a new architecture for climate finance.
In his closing remarks, COP28 President Al Jaber said: “The world needed to find a new way. By following our North Star (1.5 degrees C), we have found that path. We have worked very hard to secure a better future for our people and our planet. We should be proud of our historic achievement. Everyone united, acted and delivered.”
Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary, UN Climate Change, said COP28 needed to signal a hard stop to humanity’s core climate problem - fossil fuels and their planet-burning pollution. "Whilst we didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end."
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Equity and CBDR not addressed
Union Minister for Environment, Forests and Climate Change Bhupendra Yadav, in his statement during the closing plenary, said equity and climate justice were key. China also criticised the UAE Consensus for not addressing Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR), a principle enshrined in the UNFCCC framework. "The developed countries have unshaken responsibility for climate change," the China delegate said.
Sanjay Vashist, Director, Climate Action Network South Asia, said, “The outcome of COP28 makes it clear that the world only belongs to the rich and influential in developed countries. The removal of equity and human rights principles from the final outcome text indicates that vulnerable communities in developing countries need to save themselves on their own and the real climate culprits are not coming to their rescue. We cannot celebrate mere inclusion of reference to fossil fuels in the text if it comes without means of implementation and finance for energy transition for poor and developing countries. If this is what a ‘historical outcome’ looks like, then it is on the wrong side of history."
Aarti Khosla, Director, Climate Trends, said the Dubai deal is positive, but with gaps. "The outcome text makes real concessions for gas and oil. In an effort to please the major emitters, the decision gives a free pass to gas by terming it transitional fuel, regardless of emissions contributions which are modelled to come from gas, especially from countries like Russia, US, Middle East," she said.
Weak on finance
The phase out of fossil fuels will only be possible with the right financing package for poor and vulnerable nations. Despite a strong start into COP with the creation of the Loss and Damage fund, in the end, experts feel the financing package falls short of expectations and lacks any reality. It does not even set out the need to agree on a definition of climate finance or take any steps to improve the transparency of financial flows.
Adaptation finance fell by 14%, according to the latest report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). "Reiterating old promises, such as doubling funding for adaptation by 2025, without requesting implementation plans is no progress. It blatantly ignores the reality of those on the front lines of climate change, who urgently need support," said Friederike Röder, Vice President, Global Citizen.
The two main items on finance are Article 2.1c of the Paris Agreement and the new collective quantified goal (NCQG), which would replace the $100 billion climate finance goal. The NCQG will be tackled at next year's COP. "Yes, overall UAE Consensus on finance is very weak, but it can set the tone for COP29," said Harjeet Singh, Head (global political strategy), CAN International.
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