Why is the Q3 GDP surprise not surprising?
The robust 8.4% real GDP growth print for 3Q contrasts the grim reality of household consumption and income situation. The latest national expenditure survey (2022-23), released after a lag of 11 years shows real consumption grew modestly at 3% over the past 11 years and the PLFS data indicates flat real incomes over the past four years. Also, most consumer companies have shown a lackluster demand situation.
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