India's cold snap could boost wheat harvest, but abnormal rise in temperatures would impact yields and force imports. Poor wheat output in 2022 and 2023 led to low state reserves, necessitating imports if there's a third consecutive poor harvest. The government has resisted wheat imports to date. The current cold weather is aiding wheat growth, and a target of 114 million metric tons is expected. However, sudden temperature rise in the grain formation stage poses a risk. It is crucial that weather conditions remain favorable until April. The crop size will be determined by weather in the next eight weeks.