War in the Middle East has the potential to cause oil prices to surge to $140 a barrel, leading to a global recession, warns Ana Boata, head of economic research at Allianz Trade. She predicts a 20% chance of hostilities between Israel and Hamas escalating into a broader regional conflict that disrupts crude supplies. Such a scenario would result in higher oil prices, slower global growth. Global growth as a whole would slow to 2% — close to the threshold that signals contraction.