El Nino and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) are causing below-normal rainfall in India, which could lead to a significant drought. The agriculture sector, which heavily relies on monsoon rains, will be negatively impacted, affecting both food production and prices. This could result in higher inflation and potentially force the Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates. The MJO cycle is being affected by the expansion of the warm pool, leading to altered rainfall patterns globally.