Path Towards Economic Normalcy: Assessing the impact of inflation, central bank policies

Despite global economic activity slowing down, the absence of any significant financial accidents, robust employment conditions, and stronger balance sheets have aided in withstanding the normalisation cycle better than expected. However, the pressure on demand conditions may continue to rise due to higher nominal yield curves and tightened lending standards. Although corporate earnings have surpassed expectations, inflation will likely remain elevated compared to pre-Covid levels. The worst of the inflation scare may be over, but central banks are unlikely to resort to rate cuts unless there is a threat to financial stability. RBI's proactive stance has supported India's growth momentum, but fiscal deficit run rate is 6%, and pre-emptive loosening can backfire, resulting in higher inflation. Thus, rates may remain higher for longer, and short-term funds may provide healthier accruals without taking significant duration risk.

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