Food feeding retail inflation comedown

Food prices continued to pull down retail inflation in April. Within the food basket in the consumer price index (CPI), prices are sticky in cereals and dairy, and the downside pressure is being exerted by meat, vegetables and edible oil. Supply-side responses last year, such as export restrictions, were directed principally at grain and the results have been tepid. Dairy prices are strongly correlated with those of cereals. Edible oils are still vulnerable to geopolitical factors and the disinflationary effect of vegetables is seasonal. As far as food inflation goes, the downside risks are entrenched while the upside risks are transient.

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